Crops and climate change - 14th July 2011

In partnership with Cambridge Partnership for Plant Sciences

CPPS is a partnership of university departments, research institutes and industry which aims to strengthen and integrate pure and applied research in plant sciences in and around Cambridge. It provides a forum for the exchange of ideas and promotes research opportunities.

Presentations

• Using climate modelling to understand food production and food security
  Andy Challinor - Institute of Climatic and Atmospheric Science, Leeds University

There is a need for more systematic ways of crop modelling in the face of climate change and other global challenges. Current modelling too variable, creating too much uncertainty, e.g. North American wheat yields shown to vary from -100% to +234% in different studies. The broad spectrum of results arises from the diversity of techniques employed.
The answer is to combine crop and climate models bringing together scientists from across all disciplines. The Leeds EQUIP project includes UK climate, statistical and impact modelling communities. Work includes mapping the impact of increases in temperature, water reduction and a combination of both on the rate of harvest failure as part of the process of adapting varieties for climate change. The researchers have also linked virtual crops to existing germplasm giving plant breeders, researchers and farmers a better indication of the impact of climate change. For example, of the current spring wheat varieties in northern USA 54% show reduced yields with a 4ºC rise in temperature.

• Winter wheat yield trends in Europe and at a global scale
  John Spink - Head of Crop Science Department, Teagasc Crops

The FAO yield data from 1961-2007 shows little obvious evidence that world wheat yields are plateauing, but drill down into the individual major production areas and there are huge variations in average yields. Worryingly yields are declining or progress is slowing in Australia, India, the EU and USA. Within the EU Sweden and the UK show reduced yield improvements and declining yields are being measured in Austria, Ireland, Greece, Denmark, France and The Netherlands.
So what are the limitations to yield? Environmental and genetic potential is being met but yields are still declining. Ireland has the highest crop yields in the world. The potential wheat yield in southern Ireland is 22.8 t/ha compared to the current average of 9.3 t/ha. The answer must be husbandry – reduced grain prices means fewer inputs, poor rotations, economics of scale, legislation and increased pest/disease pressure.

• Can wheat beat the heat? Prospects and challenges for UK wheat breeding
  Richard Summers - Leader on Cereal Breeding, RAGT

Consensus on climate change and predictions of the likely impact on crop production is difficult to achieve. If CO₂ levels increase then yields may increase in C3 plants. Increased ozone would reduce yields. Variety yield trend is currently upwards but how long can this be maintained? The current yield plateau may be due to husbandry issues, but also looking at the ratio of day:night temperatures and the impact on physiological processes, e.g. photosynthetic rate. Why can some varieties cope with extreme weather circumstances?An answer is to source a new set of genes to increase yields and respond to climate change and meet with challenge of food security. For example French and Mediterranean varieties could provide new material for UK varieties with the help of developing genetic market technology, alongside traditional empirical selection techniques.

• Large scale field-based phenotyping platforms: a missing link between genomics and crop improvement
  Eric Ober - Group Leader Crop Physiology, Rothamsted Research

Field phenotyping, how plant genes interact with the environment to produce a typical crop, is a necessary and important method to understand plant genetics and improve our ability to produce crops adapted to climate change. Plans for a UK field phenotyping facility for wheat are underway – measuring physical plant traits, including leaf area, plant height, drought tolerance, ear size and the correlation with key targets of yield, quality, stress resistance and resource use efficiency.

Media coverage

Boosting wheat yields amid a shifting climate - FWi (21 July 2011)